气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0462.1
	Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China
	Chen Y.; Li W.; Jiang X.; Zhai P.; Luo Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1185
结束页码	1201
卷号	34 期号:3
英文摘要	Detecting long-term changes in precipitation extremes over monsoon regions remains challenging due to large observational uncertainty, high internal variability at the regional scale, and climate models' deficiency in simulating monsoon physics. This is particularly true for Eastern China, as illustrated by limited yet controversial detection results for daily scale precipitation extremes and the lack of detection analysis on hourly scale extremes there. Relying on high-quality gauge observations, two complementary techniques are used to detect the footprint of anthropogenic forcings in observed changes in both hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across Eastern China. Results show that, scaled with global-mean surface temperature during 1970-2017, the regional-scale intensification nearly doubles the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (C-C;;6.5% 8C21) for the wettest 10 h in the period and almost triples the C-C rate for the top 10 heaviest daily precipitation extremes. The intensification at both time scales, as well as the resulting increase in frequency, is discernibly stronger and more widespread than expected due to random internal variability. This not only lends supports to the model-based detection of forced trends for daily scale precipitation extremes, but it also suggests that anthropogenic warming has already be intensifying hourly scale precipitation extremes in this monsoon region. The magnitude and detectability of observed changes arise primarily from systematic intensification of non-tropical-cyclone-related precipitation extremes in response to the past warming. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climate models; Storms; Anthropogenic warming; Complementary techniques; Daily precipitations; Global mean surface temperature; Internal variability; Precipitation extremes; Scale precipitation; Tropical cyclone; Scale (deposits)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170939
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC, Université Paris Saclay, Paris, France; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Y.,Li W.,Jiang X.,et al. Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China[J],2021,34(3).
APA	Chen Y.,Li W.,Jiang X.,Zhai P.,&Luo Y..(2021).Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China.Journal of Climate,34(3).
MLA	Chen Y.,et al."Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China".Journal of Climate 34.3(2021).