气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in forced and natural arctic solar absorption variations in CMIP6 models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0244.1
	Uncertainty in forced and natural arctic solar absorption variations in CMIP6 models
	Sledd A.; L'Ecuyer T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	931
结束页码	948
卷号	34 期号:3
英文摘要	The Arctic is rapidly changing, with increasingly dramatic sea ice loss and surface warming in recent decades. Shortwave radiation plays a key role in Arctic warming during summer months, and absorbed shortwave radiation has been increasing largely because of greater sea ice loss. Clouds can influence this ice-albedo feedback by modulating the amount of shortwave radiation incident on the Arctic Ocean. In turn, clouds impact the amount of time that must elapse before forced trends in Arctic shortwave absorption emerge from internal variability. This study determines whether the forced climate response of absorbed shortwave radiation in the Arctic has emerged in the modern satellite record and global climate models. From 18 years of satellite observations from CERES-EBAF, we find that recent declines in sea ice are large enough to produce a statistically significant trend (1.7 3 106 PJ or 3.9% per decade) in observed clear-sky absorbed shortwave radiation. However, clouds preclude any forced trends in all-sky absorption from emerging within the existing satellite record. Across 18 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the predicted time to emergence of absorbed shortwave radiation trends varies from 8 to 39 and from 8 to 35 years for all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively, across two future scenarios. Furthermore, most models fail to reproduce the observed cloud delaying effect because of differences in internal variability. Contrary to observations, one-third of models suggest that clouds may reduce the time to emergence of absorbed shortwave trends relative to clear skies, an artifact that may be the result of inaccurate representations of cloud feedbacks. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Radiation; Satellites; Sea ice; Climate response; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global climate model; Ice albedo feedback; Internal variability; Satellite observations; Short-wave radiation; Solar absorption; Climate models
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170924
作者单位	University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sledd A.,L'Ecuyer T.. Uncertainty in forced and natural arctic solar absorption variations in CMIP6 models[J],2021,34(3).
APA	Sledd A.,&L'Ecuyer T..(2021).Uncertainty in forced and natural arctic solar absorption variations in CMIP6 models.Journal of Climate,34(3).
MLA	Sledd A.,et al."Uncertainty in forced and natural arctic solar absorption variations in CMIP6 models".Journal of Climate 34.3(2021).