气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0158.1
	Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models
	Zhao Y.; Lorenzo E.D.I.; Sun D.; Stevenson S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1023
结束页码	1045
卷号	34 期号:3
英文摘要	Observational analyses suggest that a significant fraction of the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) (;60%–70%) is energized by the combined action of extratropical precursors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originating from the North and South Pacific. Specifically, the growth and decay of the basin-scale TPDV pattern (time scale 5;1.5–2 years) is linked to the following sequence: ENSO precursors (extratropics, growth phase) / ENSO (tropics, peak phase) / ENSO successors (extratropics, decay phase) resulting from ENSO teleconnections. This sequence of teleconnections is an important physical basis for Pacific climate predictability. Here we examine the TPDV and its connection to extratropical dynamics in 20 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). We find that most models (;80%) can simulate the observed spatial pattern (R . 0.6) and frequency characteristics of the TPDV. In 12 models, more than 65% of the basinwide Pacific decadal variability (PDV) originates from TPDV, which is comparable with observations (;70%). However, despite reproducing the basic spatial and temporal statistics, models underestimate the influence of the North and South Pacific ENSO precursors to the TPDV, and most of the models’ TPDV originates in the tropics. Only 35%–40% of the models reproduce the observed extratropical ENSO precursor patterns (R . 0.5). Models with a better representation of the ENSO precursors show 1) better basin-scale signatures of TPDV and 2) stronger ENSO teleconnections from/to the tropics that are consistent with observations. These results suggest that better representation of ENSO precursor dynamics in CMIP may lead to improved Pacific decadal variability dynamics and predictability. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Dynamics; Tropics; Climate predictability; Combined actions; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Frequency characteristic; Observational analysis; Pacific decadal variabilities; Precursor dynamics; Southern oscillation; Climatology
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170922
作者单位	Program in Ocean Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao Y.,Lorenzo E.D.I.,Sun D.,et al. Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models[J],2021,34(3).
APA	Zhao Y.,Lorenzo E.D.I.,Sun D.,&Stevenson S..(2021).Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models.Journal of Climate,34(3).
MLA	Zhao Y.,et al."Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models".Journal of Climate 34.3(2021).