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| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0616.1 |
| Changes in extreme precipitation accumulations during the warm season over continental China | |
| Chang M.; Liu B.; Martinez-Villalobos C.; Ren G.; Li S.; Zhou T. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| 起始页码 | 10799 |
| 结束页码 | 10811 |
| 卷号 | 33期号:24 |
| 英文摘要 | Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May-October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, the probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up to an approximately exponential cutoff scale sL where probability drops much faster. Hence sL can be used as an indicator of high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme precipitation accumulations). Overall, the climatology of sL over continental China is about 54 mm. In terms of cutoff changes, the current warming stage (1980-2015) is divided into two periods, 1980-97 and 1998-2015. We find that the cutoff in 1998-2015 increases about 5.6% compared with that of 1980-97, with an average station increase of 4.7%. Regionally, sL increases are observed over East China (10.9% 61.5%), Northwest China (9.7%6 2.5%), South China (9.4%6 1.4%), southern Southwest China (5.6%6 1.2%), and Central China (5.3% 61.0%), with decreases over North China (210.3% 61.3%), Northeast China (24.9%6 1.5%), and northern SouthwestChina (23.9%61.8%). The conditional risk ratios for five subregions with increased cutoff sL are all greater than 1.0, indicating an increased risk of large precipitation accumulations in the most recent period. For high precipitation accumulations larger than the 99th percentile of accumulation s99, the risk of extreme precipitation over these regions can increase above 20% except for South China. These increases of extreme accumulations can be largely explained by the extended duration of extreme accumulation events, especially for "extremely extreme" precipitation greater than s99. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. |
| 英文关键词 | Drops; Central chinas; Exponential cutoff; Extreme precipitation; Northeast China; NorthWest China; Rainfall event; Southwest China; Warm seasons; Precipitation (meteorology); extreme event; precipitation (climatology); precipitation assessment; trend analysis; warming; China; Indicator indicator |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Climate
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170915 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas ÁRidas, Coquimbo, Chile; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation Systems and East Asian Monsoon, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology and Climate Change, Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun, China; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chang M.,Liu B.,Martinez-Villalobos C.,et al. Changes in extreme precipitation accumulations during the warm season over continental China[J],2021,33(24). |
| APA | Chang M.,Liu B.,Martinez-Villalobos C.,Ren G.,Li S.,&Zhou T..(2021).Changes in extreme precipitation accumulations during the warm season over continental China.Journal of Climate,33(24). |
| MLA | Chang M.,et al."Changes in extreme precipitation accumulations during the warm season over continental China".Journal of Climate 33.24(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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