气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086138
	Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution
	Hosseini S.R.; Scaioni M.; Marani M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:1
英文摘要	The estimation of extreme hurricane probability is hampered by small samples and by limitations in our models of extreme tropical storms. Current best estimates of extreme hurricane probability based on the traditional extreme value theory assume hurricane arrivals to be a homogeneous Poisson process. We reformulate here, for application to Atlantic hurricanes, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) that relaxes this key assumption in the traditional extreme value theory and uses all available observations. The MEVD application to the 1886–2017 observational record improves the accuracy of extreme Atlantic hurricane estimation by about 50% with respect to current best estimates. The MEVD allows trends to emerge above estimation uncertainty: A sliding-window analysis shows a significant increase in extreme hurricane likelihood in the past century. This trend, previously uncertain and controversial, remains significant after correcting for hurricane underdetection in the presatellite era and when focusing only on the modern observational period (1970–2017). ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Probability distributions; Uncertainty analysis; Atlantic hurricane; Estimation uncertainties; Extreme value distributions; Extreme value theory; Extremes; Homogeneous Poisson process; Probability of occurrence; Sliding-window analysis; Hurricanes; accuracy assessment; data assimilation; estimation method; extreme event; homogeneity; hurricane; Poisson ratio; probability; sampling; uncertainty analysis; Atlantic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170881
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy; Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy; Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hosseini S.R.,Scaioni M.,Marani M.. Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution[J],2020,47(1).
APA	Hosseini S.R.,Scaioni M.,&Marani M..(2020).Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution.Geophysical Research Letters,47(1).
MLA	Hosseini S.R.,et al."Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution".Geophysical Research Letters 47.1(2020).