气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Value at Induced Risk: Injection-Induced Seismic Risk From Low-Probability; High-Impact Events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085878
	Value at Induced Risk: Injection-Induced Seismic Risk From Low-Probability; High-Impact Events
	Langenbruch C.; Ellsworth W.L.; Woo J.-U.; Wald D.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:2
英文摘要	The increasing number of damaging earthquakes, induced by underground injection of fluids, demonstrates the need of a structured methodology for critical thinking about and clear communication of induced seismic risk. Using the Pohang, South Korea, geothermal project and the damaging (US$75M) local magnitude ML 5.35 induced earthquake in 2017, we present a straightforward methodology that summarizes induced seismic risk in a single time-dependent number, the Value at Induced Risk (VaIR). VaIR quantifies the amount of economic losses that will not be exceeded at a given confidence level. Our method reveals that the Pohang project was exposed to a 2% chance of causing economic losses of US$140M or more (1% of US$3.2B or more). The high risk could have been identified during the sequence of reservoir stimulation, lasting almost 2 years. VaIR opens new ways to assess and communicate risk to all stakeholders for informed risk management decision making. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Decision making; Earthquakes; Geothermal energy; Losses; Risk assessment; Seismology; Confidence levels; Critical thinking; Geothermal projects; High impact events; Management decision-making; Reservoir stimulations; Seismic hazards; Seismic risk; Risk management; decision making; earthquake; fluid injection; geothermal power; induced response; induced seismicity; probability; risk assessment; seismic hazard; stakeholder; North Kyongsang; Pohang; South Korea; South Korea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170814
作者单位	Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Now at Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Langenbruch C.,Ellsworth W.L.,Woo J.-U.,et al. Value at Induced Risk: Injection-Induced Seismic Risk From Low-Probability; High-Impact Events[J],2020,47(2).
APA	Langenbruch C.,Ellsworth W.L.,Woo J.-U.,&Wald D.J..(2020).Value at Induced Risk: Injection-Induced Seismic Risk From Low-Probability; High-Impact Events.Geophysical Research Letters,47(2).
MLA	Langenbruch C.,et al."Value at Induced Risk: Injection-Induced Seismic Risk From Low-Probability; High-Impact Events".Geophysical Research Letters 47.2(2020).