气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24-hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL085418
	A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24-hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction
	Kim Y.-T.; So B.-J.; Kwon H.-H.; Lall U.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:3
英文摘要	We develop a hybrid statistical forecasting model for the simultaneous season-ahead forecasting of both seasonal rainfall and the 24-hr maximum rainfall for the upcoming season, using predictors identified through the Shared Reciprocal Nearest Neighbor approach. The model uses a generalized linear regression and a four-parameter Beta distribution model for downscaling extremes using the predictors that were identified. A cross-validation experiment for the last four decades in both Han-River and Geum-River watersheds, South Korea was performed to test the efficacy of the model. The leave-one-out cross-validated seasonal precipitation forecast demonstrates a correlation that ranges from 0.69–0.78 to 0.68–0.76 for the Han-River and Geum-River watershed, respectively. Similarly, for the 24-hr maximum rainfalls in the upcoming season, the cross-validated correlations between the predicted and the observed values range from 0.67–0.73 to 0.50–0.63, for the two river basins. A discussion of the potential causes of the skill is offered. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Rivers; Watersheds; Weather forecasting; Climate information; Extreme rainfall; Multiscale predictions; Seasonal rainfall; Teleconnections; Rain; climate modeling; downscaling; extreme event; precipitation intensity; regression analysis; seasonality; teleconnection; watershed; Han River [Far East]; Kum River; South Korea; Geum
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170791
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kim Y.-T.,So B.-J.,Kwon H.-H.,et al. A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24-hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction[J],2020,47(3).
APA	Kim Y.-T.,So B.-J.,Kwon H.-H.,&Lall U..(2020).A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24-hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction.Geophysical Research Letters,47(3).
MLA	Kim Y.-T.,et al."A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24-hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction".Geophysical Research Letters 47.3(2020).