气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087047
	CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols
	Chylek P.; Folland C.; Klett J.D.; Dubey M.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:3
英文摘要	We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Regression analysis; Volcanoes; Aerosol-cloud interaction; Mixed-phase cloud; predictors; Radiative forcings; Regression coefficient; Solar variability; Surface temperatures; Volcanic aerosols; Climate models; CMIP; parameterization; probability; radiative forcing; regression analysis; surface temperature; volcanic aerosol; volcanic cloud
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170782
作者单位	Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia; PAR Associates, Las Cruces, NM, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chylek P.,Folland C.,Klett J.D.,et al. CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols[J],2020,47(3).
APA	Chylek P.,Folland C.,Klett J.D.,&Dubey M.K..(2020).CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols.Geophysical Research Letters,47(3).
MLA	Chylek P.,et al."CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols".Geophysical Research Letters 47.3(2020).