气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085905
	Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions
	Larson E.J.L.; Portmann R.W.; Solomon S.; Murphy D.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:3
英文摘要	We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the average climate model would need to simulate the observed global mean surface temperature anomalies. We further infer the anthropogenic aerosols radiative forcing as a residual using the better-known greenhouse gas radiative forcing. This allows an independent estimate of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which suggests a cooling influence due to aerosols in the early part of the twentieth century. The temporal kernels are also used to calculate decadal contributions from the dominant forcing agents to present-day temperature, ocean heat content, and thermosteric sea level rise. The current global mean temperature anomaly is dominated by emissions in the past two decades, while current ocean heat content is more strongly affected by earlier decades. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Climatology; Enthalpy; Greenhouse gases; Sea level; Anthropogenic aerosols; Anthropogenic emissions; Global mean surface temperature; Global-mean temperature; Model inter comparisons; Radiative forcings; Temperature response; Thermosteric sea level; Climate models; aerosol; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; CMIP; decadal variation; emission; greenhouse gas; radiative forcing; sea level change; sea surface temperature; temperature anomaly; temperature effect
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170775
作者单位	Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Larson E.J.L.,Portmann R.W.,Solomon S.,et al. Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions[J],2020,47(3).
APA	Larson E.J.L.,Portmann R.W.,Solomon S.,&Murphy D.M..(2020).Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions.Geophysical Research Letters,47(3).
MLA	Larson E.J.L.,et al."Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions".Geophysical Research Letters 47.3(2020).