气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086224
	On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California
	van den Ende M.P.A.; Ampuero J.-P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:3
英文摘要	Earthquake foreshocks may provide information that is critical to short-term earthquake forecasting. However, foreshocks are far from ubiquitously observed, which makes the interpretation of ongoing seismic sequences problematic. Based on a statistical analysis, Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725) suggested that as much as 72% of all mainshocks in Southern California is preceded by foreshock sequences. In this study, we reassess the analysis of Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725), and we evaluate the impact of the assumptions made by these authors. Using an alternative statistical approach, we find that only 15 out of 46 mainshocks (33%) are preceded by significantly elevated seismicity rates. When accounting for temporal fluctuations in the background seismicity, only 18% of the analyzed foreshock sequences remain unexplained by the background seismicity. These results imply that even in a highly complete earthquake catalog, the majority of earthquakes do not exhibit detectable foreshock sequences. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	HTTP; background seismicity; Earthquake catalogs; Earthquake forecasting; foreshocks; Southern California; Statistical approach; Statistical significance; Temporal fluctuation; Earthquakes; earthquake event; earthquake swarm; foreshock; seismicity; statistical analysis; temporal variation; California; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170766
作者单位	Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Géoazur, Valbonne, France; Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van den Ende M.P.A.,Ampuero J.-P.. On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California[J],2020,47(3).
APA	van den Ende M.P.A.,&Ampuero J.-P..(2020).On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California.Geophysical Research Letters,47(3).
MLA	van den Ende M.P.A.,et al."On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California".Geophysical Research Letters 47.3(2020).