气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL083898
	Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models
	Rugenstein M.; Bloch-Johnson J.; Gregory J.; Andrews T.; Mauritsen T.; Li C.; Frölicher T.L.; Paynter D.; Danabasoglu G.; Yang S.; Dufresne J.-L.; Cao L.; Schmidt G.A.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Geoffroy O.; Knutti R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:4
英文摘要	The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming. © 2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate sensitivity; CO2 concentration; Coupled climate model; Equatorial Pacific; Extrapolation methods; Global feedback; Spatial patterns; Time dependent; Climate models; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; global warming; simulation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170727
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; NCAS, University of Reading, Reading, PA, United States; UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; LMD/IPSL, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Paris, France; School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hang Zhou, China; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Instit...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rugenstein M.,Bloch-Johnson J.,Gregory J.,et al. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models[J],2020,47(4).
APA	Rugenstein M..,Bloch-Johnson J..,Gregory J..,Andrews T..,Mauritsen T..,...&Knutti R..(2020).Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models.Geophysical Research Letters,47(4).
MLA	Rugenstein M.,et al."Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models".Geophysical Research Letters 47.4(2020).