气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086765
	Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific
	Ding H.; Newman M.; Alexander M.A.; Wittenberg A.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:5
英文摘要	We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model-analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model-analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation-initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10-m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6-month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model-analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	Oceanography; Surface waters; Tropics; Weather forecasting; Climate simulation; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Direct links; Equatorial Pacific; Interannual variability; Precipitation forecast; Sea surface temperature (SST); Seasonal forecasts; Climate models; annual variation; climate modeling; CMIP; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; hindcasting; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170637
作者单位	CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding H.,Newman M.,Alexander M.A.,et al. Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific[J],2020,47(5).
APA	Ding H.,Newman M.,Alexander M.A.,&Wittenberg A.T..(2020).Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific.Geophysical Research Letters,47(5).
MLA	Ding H.,et al."Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific".Geophysical Research Letters 47.5(2020).