气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086753
	Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill
	Acosta Navarro J.C.; Ortega P.; Batté L.; Smith D.; Bretonnière P.A.; Guemas V.; Massonnet F.; Sicardi V.; Torralba V.; Tourigny E.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:5
英文摘要	Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice-atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Sea ice; Sea level; Arctic sea ice; Atmospheric teleconnections; Climate prediction; Eurasian climate; large ensembles; Forecasting; atmospheric blocking; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; Northern Hemisphere; sea ice; teleconnection; Arctic Ocean; Russian Federation; Scandinavia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170617
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Acosta Navarro J.C.,Ortega P.,Batté L.,et al. Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill[J],2020,47(5).
APA	Acosta Navarro J.C..,Ortega P..,Batté L..,Smith D..,Bretonnière P.A..,...&Doblas-Reyes F.J..(2020).Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill.Geophysical Research Letters,47(5).
MLA	Acosta Navarro J.C.,et al."Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill".Geophysical Research Letters 47.5(2020).