气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL085792
	The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections
	Vega-Westhoff B.; Sriver R.L.; Hartin C.; Wong T.E.; Keller K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:6
英文摘要	The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high-impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced-complexity Earth system model, Hector-BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high-end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision-relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Earth (planet); Sea level; Bayesian calibration; Climate sensitivity; Global temperature change; Historical observation; Probabilistic framework; Probabilistic projections; Regional variability; Sea level rise; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; environmental hazard; sea level change; temperature gradient
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170583
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY, United States; Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vega-Westhoff B.,Sriver R.L.,Hartin C.,et al. The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections[J],2020,47(6).
APA	Vega-Westhoff B.,Sriver R.L.,Hartin C.,Wong T.E.,&Keller K..(2020).The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(6).
MLA	Vega-Westhoff B.,et al."The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.6(2020).