气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic Forecasting of El Niño Using Neural Network Models

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086423
	Probabilistic Forecasting of El Niño Using Neural Network Models
	Petersik P.J.; Dijkstra H.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:6
英文摘要	We apply Gaussian density neural network and quantile regression neural network ensembles to predict the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both models are able to assess the predictive uncertainty of the forecast by predicting a Gaussian distribution and the quantiles of the forecasts, respectively. This direct estimation of the predictive uncertainty for each given forecast is a novel feature in the prediction of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation by statistical models. The predicted mean and median, respectively, show a high-correlation skill for long lead times (r=0.5, 12 months) for the 1963–2017 evaluation period. For the 1982–2017 evaluation period, the probabilistic forecasts by the Gaussian density neural network can better estimate the predictive uncertainty than a standard method to assess the predictive uncertainty of statistical models. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Gaussian distribution; Learning systems; Neural networks; Uncertainty analysis; Gaussian density; Long-lead time; Neural network model; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasting; Probabilistic forecasts; Quantile regression; Southern oscillation; Forecasting; artificial neural network; El Nino; forecasting method; machine learning; prediction; probability; regression analysis; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170582
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Centre for Complex Systems Studies (CCSS), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Petersik P.J.,Dijkstra H.A.. Probabilistic Forecasting of El Niño Using Neural Network Models[J],2020,47(6).
APA	Petersik P.J.,&Dijkstra H.A..(2020).Probabilistic Forecasting of El Niño Using Neural Network Models.Geophysical Research Letters,47(6).
MLA	Petersik P.J.,et al."Probabilistic Forecasting of El Niño Using Neural Network Models".Geophysical Research Letters 47.6(2020).