气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086913
	Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt
	Sherman P.; Tziperman E.; Deser C.; McElroy M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:6
英文摘要	Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951–2000 and 2051–2100. We find that internal variability dominates the forced response on short timescales (~20 years) and that the area impacted by internal variability grows in the future, connecting internal variability and climate change. Unlike prior studies, we do not assume specific patterns of internal variability to affect GrIS melting but derive them from maximum covariance analysis. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of internal atmospheric variability associated with GrIS melt conditions in CESM-LE and reanalysis, with the positive phase (NAO+) linked to widespread cooling over the ice sheet. CESM-LE and CMIP5 project an increase in the frequency of NAO+ events, suggesting a negative feedback to the GrIS under future climate change. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Glaciers; Ice; Melting; Sea level; Atmospheric variability; Earth system model; Forced response; Greenland Ice Sheet; Internal variability; large ensemble; Maximum covariance analysis; North Atlantic oscillations; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; covariance analysis; future prospect; historical record; melting; North Atlantic Oscillation; sea level change; summer; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170553
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sherman P.,Tziperman E.,Deser C.,et al. Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt[J],2020,47(6).
APA	Sherman P.,Tziperman E.,Deser C.,&McElroy M..(2020).Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt.Geophysical Research Letters,47(6).
MLA	Sherman P.,et al."Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt".Geophysical Research Letters 47.6(2020).