气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086259
	Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown
	Hawkins E.; Frame D.; Harrington L.; Joshi M.; King A.; Rojas M.; Sutton R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:6
英文摘要	Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptation, it is the amplitude of the change relative to the local amplitude of climate variability which is more relevant. Here, we develop the concept of “signal-to-noise” in observations of local temperature, highlighting that many regions are already experiencing a climate which would be “unknown” by late 19th century standards. The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extratropics—broadly consistent with climate model simulations. Significant increases and decreases in rainfall have also already emerged in different regions with the United Kingdom experiencing a shift toward more extreme rainfall events, a signal which is emerging more clearly in some places than the changes in mean rainfall. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate models; Rain; Signal to noise ratio; Temperature; Climate model simulations; Climate variability; emergence; extremes; Local temperature; observations; Signal to noise; Temperature changes; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; land-sea interaction; observational method; rainfall; temperature gradient; United Kingdom
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170547
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Geophysics and Centre for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hawkins E.,Frame D.,Harrington L.,et al. Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown[J],2020,47(6).
APA	Hawkins E..,Frame D..,Harrington L..,Joshi M..,King A..,...&Sutton R..(2020).Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown.Geophysical Research Letters,47(6).
MLA	Hawkins E.,et al."Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown".Geophysical Research Letters 47.6(2020).