气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Niño Modoki

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086713
	Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Niño Modoki
	Doi T.; Behera S.K.; Yamagata T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:7
英文摘要	A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2019 that reached the level of the strongest events occurred in 1994 and 1997 and caused disasters in countries around the Indian Ocean. Using a quasi real-time ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier climate model, its occurrence was predicted a few seasons ahead and the possible impacts were warned by overcoming the so-called winter predictability barrier. The successful prediction of such a super event at long lead time may contribute to reducing the risks of socioeconomic losses by introducing suitable measures for adaptation. Here, we have investigated possible sources of the successful prediction by analyzing covariability of intermember anomalies defined as deviations from the mean in the ensemble reforecasts. Interestingly, it is found that the potential predictability of the 2019 super positive event is linked with the preexisting El Niño Modoki in the tropical Pacific. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Risk assessment; Indian ocean; Indian ocean dipoles; Long leads; Real time; Reforecasts; Scale interactions; Seasonal prediction; Socioeconomic loss; Forecasting; climate modeling; El Nino; ensemble forecasting; Indian Ocean Dipole; natural disaster; seasonal variation; socioeconomic conditions; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170522
作者单位	Application Laboratory (APL), Research Institute for Value-Added-Information Generation (VAiG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan; Institute of Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Doi T.,Behera S.K.,Yamagata T.. Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Niño Modoki[J],2020,47(7).
APA	Doi T.,Behera S.K.,&Yamagata T..(2020).Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Niño Modoki.Geophysical Research Letters,47(7).
MLA	Doi T.,et al."Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Niño Modoki".Geophysical Research Letters 47.7(2020).