气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086843
	Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era
	Brennan M.K.; Hakim G.J.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:7
英文摘要	Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) has declined drastically in recent decades, yet its evolution prior to the satellite era is highly uncertain. Studies using SIE observations find little variability prior to the 1970s; however, these reconstructions are based on limited data, especially prior to the 1950s. We use ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation of surface air temperature observations with Last Millennium climate model simulations to create a fully gridded Arctic sea-ice concentration reconstruction from 1850 to 2018 and investigate the evolution of Arctic SIE during this period. We find a decline of ∼1.25×106 km2 during the early 20th-century warming (1910–1940). The 25-year trends during this period are ∼33–38% smaller than the satellite era (1979–2018) but almost twice as large as previous estimates. Additionally, we find that variability of SIE on decadal timescales prior to the satellite era is ∼40% greater than previously estimated. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Satellites; 20th century; Arctic sea ice; Climate model simulations; Data assimilation; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Last millenniums; Limited data; Surface air temperatures; Sea ice; air temperature; climate modeling; data assimilation; Kalman filter; satellite data; sea ice; simulation; timescale; trend analysis; uncertainty analysis; Arctic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170471
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brennan M.K.,Hakim G.J.,Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.. Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era[J],2020,47(7).
APA	Brennan M.K.,Hakim G.J.,&Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E..(2020).Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era.Geophysical Research Letters,47(7).
MLA	Brennan M.K.,et al."Arctic Sea-Ice Variability During the Instrumental Era".Geophysical Research Letters 47.7(2020).