气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087008
	Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts
	Tippett M.K.; L'Heureux M.L.; Becker E.J.; Kumar A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:8
英文摘要	The unanticipated stalled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution of 2014 raises questions about the reliability of the coupled models that were used for forecast guidance. Here we have analyzed the skill and reliability of forecasts of the Niño 3.4 tendency (3-month change) in the North American multimodel ensemble (1982–2018). We found that forecasts initialized April–June (AMJ) have “excessive momentum” in the sense that the forecast Niño 3.4 tendency is more likely to be a continuation of the prior observed conditions than it should be. Models tend to predict warming when initialized after observed warming conditions and cooling when initialized after observed cooling conditions. Excessive momentum appears in AMJ forecast busts and false alarms including the 2014 one. In some models, excessive momentum appears to be related to model formulation rather than initialization. A concerning trend is that four of the nine years with AMJ forecast busts occurred in the last decade. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Errors; Momentum; Cooling conditions; Coupled models; ENSO forecast; Forecast guidance; Model formulation; Multi-model ensemble; North American; Southern oscillation; Forecasting; air-sea interaction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; forecasting method; global warming; momentum transfer; spring (season)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170467
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tippett M.K.,L'Heureux M.L.,Becker E.J.,et al. Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts[J],2020,47(8).
APA	Tippett M.K.,L'Heureux M.L.,Becker E.J.,&Kumar A..(2020).Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts.Geophysical Research Letters,47(8).
MLA	Tippett M.K.,et al."Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts".Geophysical Research Letters 47.8(2020).