气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current Models Underestimate Future Irrigated Areas

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087360
	Current Models Underestimate Future Irrigated Areas
	Puy A.; Lo Piano S.; Saltelli A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:8
英文摘要	Predictions of global irrigated areas are widely used to guide strategies that aim to secure environmental welfare and manage climate change. Here we show that these predictions, which range between 240 and 450 million hectares (Mha), underestimate the potential extension of irrigation by ignoring basic parametric and model uncertainties. We found that the probability distribution of global irrigated areas in 2050 spans almost half an order of magnitude (∼300–800 Mha, P2.5,P97.5), with the right tail pushing values to up to ∼1,800 Mha. This uncertainty is mostly irreducible as it is largely caused by either population-related parameters or the assumptions behind the model design. Model end-users and policy makers should acknowledge that irrigated areas are likely to grow much more than previously thought in order to avoid underestimating potential environmental costs. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate change; Uncertainty analysis; Current models; End users; Environmental costs; Model design; Model uncertainties; Policy makers; Probability distributions; climate change; cost analysis; environmental economics; environmental modeling; future prospect; irrigation; policy making; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170454
作者单位	Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (SVT), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; School of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Open Evidence Research, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC), Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Puy A.,Lo Piano S.,Saltelli A.. Current Models Underestimate Future Irrigated Areas[J],2020,47(8).
APA	Puy A.,Lo Piano S.,&Saltelli A..(2020).Current Models Underestimate Future Irrigated Areas.Geophysical Research Letters,47(8).
MLA	Puy A.,et al."Current Models Underestimate Future Irrigated Areas".Geophysical Research Letters 47.8(2020).