气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086132
	Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe
	Huguenin M.F.; Fischer E.M.; Kotlarski S.; Scherrer S.C.; Schwierz C.; Knutti R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	In recent summers, Europe experienced record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires (in Northern Europe), and large-scale water scarcity. Apart from anthropogenic warming, one contribution leading to such exceptionally hot weather was a weaker jet stream allowing a quasi-stationary high-pressure system to persist for many days. Here, we quantify changes in the frequency and persistence of the Central European large-scale circulation types using various climate models. Independent of the circulation type, the models project warmer and drier future summer conditions in Central Europe, but no consistent shift to a more persistent summer or winter circulation. Most of the frequency and persistence changes are small and either within the internal variability or inconsistent across models. The model projections in this study do not support the claim of more persistent weather over Central Europe. Reconciling the results of different approaches and classifications is therefore critical to understand and predict changes in extreme weather over Europe. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Earth sciences; Geophysics; Anthropogenic warming; Atmospheric circulation types; High pressure system; Internal variability; Large-scale circulation; Quasi-stationary; Water scarcity; Winter circulation; Climate models; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric circulation; jet stream; persistence; summer; weather; winter; Central Europe; Northern Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170421
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huguenin M.F.,Fischer E.M.,Kotlarski S.,et al. Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Huguenin M.F.,Fischer E.M.,Kotlarski S.,Scherrer S.C.,Schwierz C.,&Knutti R..(2020).Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Huguenin M.F.,et al."Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).