气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087341
	Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble
	Giannini A.; Ali A.; Kelley C.P.; Lamptey B.L.; Minoungou B.; Ndiaye O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July–September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2-CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA-GEOSS2S). ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; NASA; Oceanography; Rain; Surface waters; Multi-model ensemble; North American; North Atlantic; Rainfall index; Rainfall prediction; Seasonal climate prediction; Southern oscillation; Tropical ocean; Forecasting; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; index method; rainfall; sea surface temperature; tropical region; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Sahel
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170420
作者单位	International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Now at Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, Paris, France; Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Formerly at the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development, Niamey, Niger; Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie, Dakar, Senegal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Giannini A.,Ali A.,Kelley C.P.,et al. Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Giannini A.,Ali A.,Kelley C.P.,Lamptey B.L.,Minoungou B.,&Ndiaye O..(2020).Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Giannini A.,et al."Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).