气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087766
	Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere
	Hardiman S.C.; Scaife A.A.; Dunstone N.J.; Wang L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	Simple models of wave-mean flow interaction in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere suggest the existence of subseasonal vacillations in the strength of the polar vortex. Here, we define a sinusoidal fit to the daily deseasonalized stratospheric wind. A suitable fixed period and amplitude for the sine waves is identified. Their mean value, equivalent to polar vortex strength, and phase, equivalent to the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings during winter, varies from year to year. These vacillations explain much of the subseasonal and interannual variability in the monthly mean vortex strength and, consistent with wave-mean flow interaction theory, their amplitude correlates positively with the magnitude of winter mean planetary wave driving. Furthermore, they allow skillful prediction of the vortex strength one month ahead. Identifying and understanding this subseasonal variability has potential implications for winter seasonal forecasts, as the December–February mean behavior may miss important subseasonal events. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Flow interactions; Interannual variability; Northern Hemispheres; Polar vortex strength; Seasonal forecasts; Stratospheric warmings; Stratospheric winds; Subseasonal variability; Wave-mean-flow interaction; Vortex flow; annual variation; Northern Hemisphere; planetary wave; polar vortex; seasonal variation; stratosphere; wave field; wind; winter
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170419
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hardiman S.C.,Scaife A.A.,Dunstone N.J.,et al. Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Hardiman S.C.,Scaife A.A.,Dunstone N.J.,&Wang L..(2020).Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Hardiman S.C.,et al."Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).