气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085311
	Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework
	Spring A.; Ilyina T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	On interannual timescales the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to climate variability. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this variability limits the predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Using perfect-model Earth System Model simulations, we show that variations in atmospheric CO2 are potentially predictable for 3 years. We find a 2-year predictability horizon for global oceanic CO2 flux with longer regional predictability of up to 7 years. The 2-year predictability horizon of terrestrial CO2 flux originates in the tropics and midlatitudes. With the predictability of the isolated effects of land and ocean carbon sink on atmospheric CO2 of 5 and 12 years respectively, land dampens the overall predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Our research shows the potential of Earth System Model-based predictions to forecast multiyear variations in atmospheric CO2. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric chemistry; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon sink; Climate variability; Earth system model; Global carbon cycle; Interannual; Midlatitudes; PERFECT model; Time-scales; Growth rate; annual variation; atmospheric gas; carbon dioxide; carbon sink; climate variation; land-sea interaction; midlatitude environment; prediction; source-sink dynamics; tropical environment
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170413
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, International Max Planck Research School of Earth System Modelling, IMPRS, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spring A.,Ilyina T.. Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Spring A.,&Ilyina T..(2020).Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Spring A.,et al."Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).