气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087253
	Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes
	Miller D.E.; Wang Z.; Trapp R.J.; Harnos D.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	Tornadoes are one of the high-impact weather phenomena that can induce life loss and property damage. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale weather regimes and tornado occurrence in boreal spring. Results show that weather regimes strongly modulate the probability of tornado occurrence in the United States due to changes in shear and convective available potential energy and that persisting weather regimes (lasting ≥3 days) contribute to greater than 70% of outbreak days (days with ≥10 tornadoes). A hybrid model based on the weather regime frequency predicted by a numerical model is developed to predict above/below normal weekly tornado activity and has skill better than climatology out to Week 3. The hybrid model can be applied to real-time forecasting and aide in mitigation of severe weather events. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Potential energy; Tornadoes; Boreal Spring; Convective available potential energies; Hybrid predictions; Property damage; Real-time forecasting; Severe weather events; Weather phenomena; Weather regimes; Weather forecasting; climatology; forecasting method; frequency analysis; numerical model; potential energy; prediction; probability; severe weather; tornado; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170412
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Miller D.E.,Wang Z.,Trapp R.J.,et al. Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Miller D.E.,Wang Z.,Trapp R.J.,&Harnos D.S..(2020).Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Miller D.E.,et al."Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).