气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainties in Future U.S. Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086797
	Uncertainties in Future U.S. Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections
	Lopez-Cantu T.; Prein A.F.; Samaras C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	Impacts modelers and stakeholders use publicly available data sets of downscaled climate projections to assess and design infrastructure for changes in future rainfall extremes. If differences across data sets exist, infrastructure resilience decisions could change depending on which single data set is used. We assess changes in U.S. rainfall extremes from 2044–2099 compared with 1951–2005 based on 227 projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from five widely used data sets. We show there are large differences in the change magnitude and its spatial structure between data sets. At the continental scale, the data sets show different increases, with high-end extremes (e.g. 100-year event) generally increasing more (between 10% and 50%) than low-end extremes (e.g. 5-year). These differences largely contribute to the overall uncertainty for small average recurrence intervals (ARIs) extremes (2- to 10-year), while uncertainties due to short record length dominate large ARIs (25- to 100-year). The results indicate that robust infrastructure planning should consider these uncertainties to enable resilient infrastructure under climate change. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Rain; Climate projection; Continental scale; Design infrastructures; Extreme precipitation; High end extremes; Infrastructure planning; Infrastructure resiliences; Recurrence intervals; Climate change; climate prediction; data set; downscaling; extreme event; future prospect; precipitation (climatology); precipitation assessment; stakeholder; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170383
作者单位	Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lopez-Cantu T.,Prein A.F.,Samaras C.. Uncertainties in Future U.S. Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Lopez-Cantu T.,Prein A.F.,&Samaras C..(2020).Uncertainties in Future U.S. Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Lopez-Cantu T.,et al."Uncertainties in Future U.S. Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).