气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086773
	Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns
	Olonscheck D.; Rugenstein M.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:10
英文摘要	Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Ensemble members; Internal variability; Model formulation; Multi-model ensemble; Observational data; Regional trends; Sea surface temperature (SST); Single models; Oceanography; CMIP; data interpretation; data set; decadal variation; observational method; sea surface temperature; trend analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170338
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Olonscheck D.,Rugenstein M.,Marotzke J.. Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns[J],2020,47(10).
APA	Olonscheck D.,Rugenstein M.,&Marotzke J..(2020).Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns.Geophysical Research Letters,47(10).
MLA	Olonscheck D.,et al."Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns".Geophysical Research Letters 47.10(2020).