气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087934
	Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts
	Richardson D.S.; Cloke H.L.; Pappenberger F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:11
英文摘要	An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to 2 weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7–9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space. © 2020 The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Flip flop circuits; Phase space methods; Ensemble forecasts; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts; Forecast divergence; Forecasting system; In-phase; North Atlantic oscillations; Objective evaluation; Weather forecasting; data interpretation; ensemble forecasting; model validation; North Atlantic Oscillation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170294
作者单位	European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Richardson D.S.,Cloke H.L.,Pappenberger F.. Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts[J],2020,47(11).
APA	Richardson D.S.,Cloke H.L.,&Pappenberger F..(2020).Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts.Geophysical Research Letters,47(11).
MLA	Richardson D.S.,et al."Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts".Geophysical Research Letters 47.11(2020).