气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088548
	The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze
	Callahan C.W.; Mankin J.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:11
英文摘要	Beijing has suffered a series of poor air quality (“haze”) episodes which have damaged human health and economic growth. Beijing's haze is generally driven by pollutant-trapping meteorological conditions, but climate model projections differ on how these conditions will evolve under forcing. Such differences are driven in part by (1) disagreements over which meteorological conditions matter most and (2) an undersampling of internal variability in projections. To resolve these differences, we show that Beijing haze is associated with anticyclonic circulation, thereby linking multiple meteorological ingredients to a single process well simulated by models. We use this to inform our assessment of future haze risks in both a multimodel ensemble and a single-model large ensemble, partitioning model uncertainty and internal variability. We estimate that forcing increases haze-favorable conditions, but internal variability significantly affects these projections, emphasizing the importance of fully sampling sources of uncertainty to ensure accurate projections of haze risks. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Air quality; Economics; Importance sampling; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Uncertainty analysis; Anticyclonic circulation; Favorable conditions; Internal climate variability; Internal variability; Meteorological condition; Model uncertainties; Multi-model ensemble; Sources of uncertainty; Climate models; air quality; anticyclone; atmospheric forcing; climate conditions; climate modeling; climate variation; economic growth; episodic event; haze; risk assessment; sampling; Beijing [China]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170287
作者单位	Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Callahan C.W.,Mankin J.S.. The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze[J],2020,47(11).
APA	Callahan C.W.,&Mankin J.S..(2020).The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze.Geophysical Research Letters,47(11).
MLA	Callahan C.W.,et al."The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze".Geophysical Research Letters 47.11(2020).