气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087809
	Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context
	Ma F.; Yuan X.; Jiao Y.; Ji P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:11
英文摘要	Western-central Europe experienced the most severe June–July heat on record in 2019, with several heatwaves occurring over the most densely populated regions. Highest 3-day averaged daily mean temperature in June–July averaged over the region exceeds normal by 4.7°C, which is estimated to be a 1-in-283-year event over the 1950–2014 climate. The driver and future likelihood of this extreme heat in a changing climate have drawn extensive attention. Based on the newly released climate model data from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that anthropogenic climate change has caused a sevenfold increase in the likelihood of the extreme heat over 1950–2014 climate, and even a 23-fold increase since 1980s. Such extreme heat will become more frequent in the future, with return periods of 1.8–7.2 years under future emission and societal development scenarios. Without sufficient adaptation strategies, such extreme heat would become more widespread, long-lasting, and severe over Europe. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Adaptation strategies; Anthropogenic climate changes; Changing climate; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Densely populated regions; Development scenarios; Mean temperature; Western-central europe; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; extreme event; future prospect; heat wave; high temperature; seasonality; Central Europe; Western Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170279
作者单位	School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma F.,Yuan X.,Jiao Y.,等. Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context[J],2020,47(11).
APA	Ma F.,Yuan X.,Jiao Y.,&Ji P..(2020).Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context.Geophysical Research Letters,47(11).
MLA	Ma F.,et al."Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context".Geophysical Research Letters 47.11(2020).