气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087820
	Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation
	Ukkola A.M.; De Kauwe M.G.; Roderick M.L.; Abramowitz G.; Pitman A.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:11
英文摘要	Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological drought for two emissions scenarios to 2100. We find robust projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over >45% of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24% of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalized increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both precipitation mean and variability. Conversely, drought intensity increases over most regions but is not simulated well historically by the climate models. The more robust projections of meteorological drought compared to mean precipitation in CMIP6 provides significant new opportunities for water resource planning. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Water resources; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Drought intensities; Emissions scenarios; Mean precipitation; Meteorological drought; Robust projection; Seasonal droughts; Water resource planning; Drought; climate change; CMIP; drought; precipitation (climatology); quantitative analysis; simulation; uncertainty analysis; water planning; water resource
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170260
作者单位	ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ukkola A.M.,De Kauwe M.G.,Roderick M.L.,et al. Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation[J],2020,47(11).
APA	Ukkola A.M.,De Kauwe M.G.,Roderick M.L.,Abramowitz G.,&Pitman A.J..(2020).Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters,47(11).
MLA	Ukkola A.M.,et al."Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation".Geophysical Research Letters 47.11(2020).