气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086075
	CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
	Weijer W.; Cheng W.; Garuba O.A.; Hu A.; Nadiga B.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:12
英文摘要	We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850–2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980s. Ensemble mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century AMOC decline. Constraining this relationship with RAPID observations suggests that the AMOC might decline between 6 and 8 Sv (34–45%) by 2100. A smaller group of models projects much less AMOC weakening of only up to 30%. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Earth sciences; Geophysics; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Historical periods; Linear trends; Multi-model ensemble; Vertical profile; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; CMIP; meridional circulation; seasonality; trend analysis; twenty first century; vertical profile; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170242
作者单位	Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Weijer W.,Cheng W.,Garuba O.A.,et al. CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation[J],2020,47(12).
APA	Weijer W.,Cheng W.,Garuba O.A.,Hu A.,&Nadiga B.T..(2020).CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Geophysical Research Letters,47(12).
MLA	Weijer W.,et al."CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation".Geophysical Research Letters 47.12(2020).