气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086757
	Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend
	Liang Y.; Gillett N.P.; Monahan A.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:12
英文摘要	The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive includes larger ensembles, longer historical simulations, and models with a broader range of climate sensitivity than CMIP5. These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections. The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well-correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We first evaluate an approach that weights simulations based on the realism and degree of independence of their 1970–2014 trends, by treating each historical simulation in turn as pseudo-observations, and using the other models and weighting method to predict 21st century warming in the model concerned. The method performs well based on correlation and probabilistic measures. Applying the method using the observed 1970–2014 warming trend results in only small changes in the mean and lower bound of CMIP6 projected warming but substantially reduces the upper bound of projected early-, mid- and late-21st century warming under all SSP scenarios. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Global warming; Climate sensitivity; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Degree of independence; Global-mean temperature; Historical simulation; Multi-model ensemble; Probabilistic measures; Pseudo-observations; Climate models; climate modeling; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; global warming; probability; trend analysis; twenty first century
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170222
作者单位	School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang Y.,Gillett N.P.,Monahan A.H.. Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend[J],2020,47(12).
APA	Liang Y.,Gillett N.P.,&Monahan A.H..(2020).Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend.Geophysical Research Letters,47(12).
MLA	Liang Y.,et al."Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend".Geophysical Research Letters 47.12(2020).