气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087516
	Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers
	Lehmann J.; Kretschmer M.; Schauberger B.; Wechsung F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:12
英文摘要	Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Chemical contamination; Cultivation; Food supply; Oceanography; Surface waters; Climate dynamics; Cross validation; Discovery algorithm; Forecast systems; Geo-potential heights; Ocean atmosphere; Sea surface temperature (SST); Strategic adaptations; Weather forecasting; adaptive management; agricultural production; agrometeorology; algorithm; climate effect; crop yield; prediction; sea surface temperature; wheat; Morocco; Triticum aestivum
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170211
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lehmann J.,Kretschmer M.,Schauberger B.,et al. Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers[J],2020,47(12).
APA	Lehmann J.,Kretschmer M.,Schauberger B.,&Wechsung F..(2020).Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers.Geophysical Research Letters,47(12).
MLA	Lehmann J.,et al."Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers".Geophysical Research Letters 47.12(2020).