气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL085806
	Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing
	Dittus A.J.; Hawkins E.; Wilcox L.J.; Sutton R.T.; Smith C.J.; Andrews M.B.; Forster P.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:13
英文摘要	The relative importance of anthropogenic aerosol in decadal variations of historical climate is uncertain, largely due to uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. We analyze a novel large ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for 1850–2014, where anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions are scaled to sample a wide range of historical aerosol radiative forcing with present-day values ranging from –0.38 to –1.50 Wm–2. Five ensemble members are run for each of five aerosol scaling factors. Decadal variations in surface temperatures are strongly sensitive to aerosol forcing, particularly between 1950 and 1980. Post-1980, trends are dominated by greenhouse gas forcing, with much lower sensitivity to aerosol emission differences. Most realizations with aerosol forcing more negative than about –1 Wm–2 simulate stronger cooling trends in the mid-20th century compared with observations, while the simulated warming post-1980 always exceeds observed warming, likelydue to a warm bias in the transient climate response in HadGEM3-GC3.1. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Greenhouse gases; Aerosol emissions; Aerosol radiative forcing; Anthropogenic aerosols; Climate response; Climate simulation; Decadal variations; Greenhouse-gas forcing; Surface temperatures; Aerosols; aerosol; greenhouse gas; radiative forcing; simulation; trend analysis; twentieth century; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170201
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dittus A.J.,Hawkins E.,Wilcox L.J.,et al. Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing[J],2020,47(13).
APA	Dittus A.J..,Hawkins E..,Wilcox L.J..,Sutton R.T..,Smith C.J..,...&Forster P.M..(2020).Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing.Geophysical Research Letters,47(13).
MLA	Dittus A.J.,et al."Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing".Geophysical Research Letters 47.13(2020).