气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088335
	A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier
	Bushuk M.; Winton M.; Bonan D.B.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.; Delworth T.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:13
英文摘要	The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice-albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export-generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Budget control; Climate models; Forecasting; Arctic sea ice; Global climate model; Ice albedo feedback; Ice thickness; Physical mechanism; Sea ice growth; Seasonal prediction; Sharp increase; Sea ice; climate feedback; experimental study; global climate; ice thickness; prediction; sea ice; spring (hydrology); Arctic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170175
作者单位	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bushuk M.,Winton M.,Bonan D.B.,et al. A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier[J],2020,47(13).
APA	Bushuk M.,Winton M.,Bonan D.B.,Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.,&Delworth T.L..(2020).A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier.Geophysical Research Letters,47(13).
MLA	Bushuk M.,et al."A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier".Geophysical Research Letters 47.13(2020).