气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving Early Estimates of Large Earthquake's Final Fault Lengths and Magnitudes Leveraging Source Fault Structural Maturity Information

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087539
	Improving Early Estimates of Large Earthquake's Final Fault Lengths and Magnitudes Leveraging Source Fault Structural Maturity Information
	Hutchison A.A.; Böse M.; Manighetti I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:14
英文摘要	Earthquake early warning would be improved if the final size of an ongoing earthquake could be predicted early in the rupture process. Previous research relies largely on parameters derived from seismic waveforms, resulting in widely varied estimates of how much of the rupture must be complete before final sizes can be predicted. We demonstrate here that incorporating prior information on along-strike variation in source fault structural maturity helps improve constraints on the earthquake's final size. Using surface slip profiles from 26 large continental earthquakes worldwide, we derive a generic empirical relation between earthquake slip, rupture length, and along-strike variability in source fault maturity. Using this equation, we fit successive slip profiles developing during each earthquake and find that, on average, we predict the final length and magnitude of an earthquake once it has reached ~20% of its total length. Our findings thus demonstrate a clear determinism in the rupture process. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Faulting; Earthquake early warning; Earthquake slip; Empirical relations; Large earthquakes; Prior information; Rupture length; Rupture process; Seismic waveforms; Earthquakes; earthquake event; earthquake magnitude; earthquake rupture; estimation method; strike-slip fault
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170126
作者单位	Université Côte d'Azur, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, CNRS, IRD, Géoazur, Valbonne, France; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hutchison A.A.,Böse M.,Manighetti I.. Improving Early Estimates of Large Earthquake's Final Fault Lengths and Magnitudes Leveraging Source Fault Structural Maturity Information[J],2020,47(14).
APA	Hutchison A.A.,Böse M.,&Manighetti I..(2020).Improving Early Estimates of Large Earthquake's Final Fault Lengths and Magnitudes Leveraging Source Fault Structural Maturity Information.Geophysical Research Letters,47(14).
MLA	Hutchison A.A.,et al."Improving Early Estimates of Large Earthquake's Final Fault Lengths and Magnitudes Leveraging Source Fault Structural Maturity Information".Geophysical Research Letters 47.14(2020).