气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086902
	Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections
	Chen Z.; Zhou T.; Zhang L.; Chen X.; Zhang W.; Jiang J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:14
英文摘要	Changes in global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation determine the local water resource, affecting two thirds of global population. The future changes in GLM summer precipitation and the sources of projection uncertainty under four scenarios are investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The GLM summer precipitation is projected to increase by 1.76 ± 1.57% (2.54 ± 2.22%), 1.33 ± 1.97% (3.52 ± 3.05%), 0.96 ± 2.04% (3.51 ± 4.97%), and 1.71 ± 2.38% (5.75 ± 5.92%) in the near (long) term under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. The enhancement is caused by thermodynamic responses due to increased moisture, which is partly offset by dynamic responses due to weakened circulation. The uncertainty in GLM precipitation projection is the largest in SSP5–8.5 long-term projection. The uncertainty of submonsoon precipitation projections is larger than that in GLM precipitation. The uncertainty of monsoon precipitation projection arises from the circulation changes, which can be partly explained by model-dependent response to uniform sea surface temperature warming. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Oceanography; Surface waters; Circulation changes; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global population; Monsoon precipitation; Projection uncertainty; Sea surface temperature (SST); Summer precipitation; Atmospheric thermodynamics; CMIP; global change; long-term change; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); thermodynamics; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170104
作者单位	LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Z.,Zhou T.,Zhang L.,et al. Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections[J],2020,47(14).
APA	Chen Z.,Zhou T.,Zhang L.,Chen X.,Zhang W.,&Jiang J..(2020).Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(14).
MLA	Chen Z.,et al."Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.14(2020).