气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088339
	Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends
	Chemke R.; Polvani L.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:15
英文摘要	In spite of the unabated emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, sea ice around Antarctica has increased over most of the satellite era. Such an increase is not captured by climate models, which simulate a melting over the same period. Over the last few years, moreover, the observed sea ice trends have drastically changed, and this might act to cancel the models-observations discrepancy. Here we show that in spite of the very recent Antarctic sea ice trend changes, such discrepancy still exists. Analyzing multiple large ensembles of model simulations, we elucidate the origin of the models-observations discrepancy. We show that internal variability cannot account for the discrepancy, which therefore is likely to stem from biases in the models' forced response to the external forcing. These biases, we show, reside in thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling, as models fail to simulate the trends in surface heat fluxes from reanalyses over the period 1979–2019. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Greenhouse gases; Heat flux; Sea ice; Antarctic sea ice; External forcing; Forced response; Ice trends; Internal variability; Model simulation; Ocean atmosphere; Surface heat fluxes; Climate models; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; climate modeling; heat flux; observational method; satellite data; sea ice; Antarctica
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170024
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chemke R.,Polvani L.M.. Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends[J],2020,47(15).
APA	Chemke R.,&Polvani L.M..(2020).Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends.Geophysical Research Letters,47(15).
MLA	Chemke R.,et al."Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends".Geophysical Research Letters 47.15(2020).