气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL088002
	Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution
	Faranda D.; Vrac M.; Yiou P.; Jézéquel A.; Thao S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:15
英文摘要	Anthropogenic emissions can modify the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as cold spells, heatwaves, and heavy precipitations. A major challenge is to detect changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with those extreme events. The emergence of patterns depends on the chaotic behavior of the atmospheric flow and can also be modified by anthropogenic emissions. By embedding the circulation patterns observed during selected extremes into historical climate simulations and projections based on emission scenarios, we find major changes in probability, predictability, and persistence of atmospheric patterns observed during extreme events using an analog-based method. The results highlight the need to take into account the role of atmospheric circulation in attribution studies as future extremes will be associated with modified circulation patterns. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climatology; Anthropogenic emissions; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric circulation patterns; Atmospheric pattern; Circulation patterns; Extreme weather events; Heavy precipitation; Synoptic circulations; Atmospheric movements; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; cold wave; emergence; emission; extreme event; heat wave; persistence; precipitation (climatology); prediction; probability; synoptic meteorology
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169984
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA l'Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; London Mathematical Laboratory, London, United Kingdom; LMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure, PSL Research University, Paris, France; École des PontsParisTech, Champs sur Marne, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Faranda D.,Vrac M.,Yiou P.,et al. Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution[J],2020,47(15).
APA	Faranda D.,Vrac M.,Yiou P.,Jézéquel A.,&Thao S..(2020).Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution.Geophysical Research Letters,47(15).
MLA	Faranda D.,et al."Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution".Geophysical Research Letters 47.15(2020).