气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086812
	Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections
	Beusch L.; Gudmundsson L.; Seneviratne S.I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:15
英文摘要	The newest generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibits a larger spread in temperature projections at the end of the 21st century than the previous generation. Here, a modular Earth System Model emulator is used to evaluate the realism of the warming signal in CMIP6 models on both global and regional scales, by comparing their global trends and regional response parameters to observations. Subsequently, the emulator is employed to derive large “crossbred” multimodel initial-condition ensembles of regionally optimized land temperature projections by combining observationally constrained global mean temperature trend trajectories with observationally constrained local parameters. In the optimized ensembles, the warmest temperature projections are generally reduced and for the coolest projections both higher and lower values are found, depending on the region. The median shows less changes in large parts of the globe. These regional differences highlight the importance of a geographically explicit evaluation of Earth System Model projections. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Geophysics; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Earth system model; Global-mean temperature; Initial condition ensembles; Local parameters; Regional differences; Regional response; Temperature projection; Earth sciences; climate modeling; CMIP; optimization; temperature anomaly; trend analysis; twenty first century
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169967
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beusch L.,Gudmundsson L.,Seneviratne S.I.. Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections[J],2020,47(15).
APA	Beusch L.,Gudmundsson L.,&Seneviratne S.I..(2020).Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(15).
MLA	Beusch L.,et al."Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.15(2020).