气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL088060
	Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting
	Trenary L.; DelSole T.; Tippett M.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:15
英文摘要	The performances of different uncertainty estimates in multipattern optimal fingerprinting are compared. The comparisons are performed in a perfect model context using the Canadian Earth System Model Large Ensemble to provide a clean comparison in the absence of model error or inconsistencies in internal variability. Performance is quantified in terms of the accuracy (correct coverage) of the confidence intervals for the fingerprint scaling factors. Sensitivity to temporal and spatial smoothing is tested. The most accurate method for interval estimation differs between variables, with a maximum likelihood method being most accurate for temperature and a bootstrap method being most accurate for precipitation. These differences can only partially be explained in terms of a relevant measure of signal-to-noise ratio. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Maximum likelihood estimation; Statistical methods; Uncertainty analysis; Confidence interval; Internal variability; Interval estimation; Maximum likelihood methods; Optimal fingerprinting; Temporal and spatial; Uncertainty estimates; Uncertainty estimation; Signal to noise ratio; accuracy assessment; bootstrapping; comparative study; estimation method; maximum likelihood analysis; optimization; performance assessment; precipitation (chemistry); sensitivity analysis; signal-to-noise ratio; spatiotemporal analysis; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169946
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center of Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Trenary L.,DelSole T.,Tippett M.K.. Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting[J],2020,47(15).
APA	Trenary L.,DelSole T.,&Tippett M.K..(2020).Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting.Geophysical Research Letters,47(15).
MLA	Trenary L.,et al."Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting".Geophysical Research Letters 47.15(2020).