气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088381
	The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models
	Yu S.; Fedorov A.V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:16
英文摘要	The mechanisms and predictability of extreme El Niño events, as in 1982, 1997, and 2015, remain unclear. Here we investigate the relative roles of the ocean initial heat recharge and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur during different seasons in the generation of extreme El Niño events in a climate model (CESM1.2). Several sets of 100-member ensemble simulations, along with CMIP5 and atmospheric reanalysis data, are used. We show that while the probability of extreme El Niño increases progressively with ocean heat recharge, tropical conditions by year-end are least predictable (the largest ensemble spread) for moderately-to-strongly recharged ocean initial states, rather than neutrally charged. Even after strong early-year WWBs and recharged ocean the occurrence of extreme El Niño has limited predictability. While the early-year WWBs are still important for strong El Niño, it is to a lesser extent than suggested previously, as mid-year WWBs play a critical role in El Niño progression. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Oceanography; Wind stress; Atmospheric reanalysis data; Ensemble simulation; Initial state; Ocean heat; Tropical conditions; Westerly wind bursts; Climate models; air-sea interaction; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; extreme event; heat transfer; probability; westerly
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169934
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu S.,Fedorov A.V.. The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models[J],2020,47(16).
APA	Yu S.,&Fedorov A.V..(2020).The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models.Geophysical Research Letters,47(16).
MLA	Yu S.,et al."The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models".Geophysical Research Letters 47.16(2020).