气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088849
	Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index
	Balaguru K.; Patricola C.M.; Hagos S.M.; Leung L.R.; Dong L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:16
英文摘要	While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences eastern North Pacific (ENP) tropical cyclones (TCs) through a variety of atmospheric processes when examined concurrently, ocean pathways dominate at longer lead times. The eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Niño, which carries warm water into the ENP basin, is the primary oceanic mechanism. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of preseason ENSO conditions enhances predictability of ENP TCs has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that relative to traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) captures changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately. Consequently, the ELI explains more variability in the upper-ocean heat content, and thus TC activity, at lead times of several months in the ENP basin. These results motivate the need to further explore the predictability of ENP TCs associated with ENSO. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Hurricanes; Storms; Tropics; Atmospheric process; Deep convection; Eastern north pacific; Southern oscillation; Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone activity; Upper ocean; Warm pools; Climatology; accuracy assessment; atmospheric convection; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; prediction; thermocline; tropical cyclone; warm pool; warm water; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169920
作者单位	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, IA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Balaguru K.,Patricola C.M.,Hagos S.M.,et al. Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index[J],2020,47(16).
APA	Balaguru K.,Patricola C.M.,Hagos S.M.,Leung L.R.,&Dong L..(2020).Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index.Geophysical Research Letters,47(16).
MLA	Balaguru K.,et al."Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index".Geophysical Research Letters 47.16(2020).