气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088717
	Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector
	Dalelane C.; Dobrynin M.; Fröhlich K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:16
英文摘要	The variability of the sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is the most important driver of weather and climate in Europe. The main mode of this variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains up to 50% of the total variance. Other modes, known as the Scandinavian index, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern, complement the variability of the sea level pressure, thereby influencing the European climate. It has been shown previously that a seasonal prediction system with enhanced winter NAO skill due to ensemble subsampling entails an improved prediction of the surface climate variables as well. Here, we show that a refined subselection procedure that accounts both for the NAO index and for the three additional modes of sea level pressure variability is able to further increase the prediction skill of wintertime mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and precipitation across Europe. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Forecasting; Additional mode; Higher-order modes; Mean sea level pressures; Near surface temperature; North Atlantic oscillations; Sea level pressure; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal prediction; Sea level; air temperature; air-sea interaction; climate conditions; climate prediction; forecasting method; North Atlantic Oscillation; sea level pressure; sea surface temperature; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (East); Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169912
作者单位	Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dalelane C.,Dobrynin M.,Fröhlich K.. Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector[J],2020,47(16).
APA	Dalelane C.,Dobrynin M.,&Fröhlich K..(2020).Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector.Geophysical Research Letters,47(16).
MLA	Dalelane C.,et al."Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector".Geophysical Research Letters 47.16(2020).