气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089300
	Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe
	Wood R.R.; Ludwig R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:17
英文摘要	At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury. ©2020 The Authors.
英文关键词	Precipitation (meteorology); Eastern Europe; Extreme precipitation; Forced response; High resolution; Internal variability; Local scale; Mean precipitation; Precipitation extremes; Uncertainty analysis; climate change; diurnal variation; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; seasonality; Eastern Europe; Northern Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169836
作者单位	Department of Geography, LMU, Munich, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wood R.R.,Ludwig R.. Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe[J],2020,47(17).
APA	Wood R.R.,&Ludwig R..(2020).Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe.Geophysical Research Letters,47(17).
MLA	Wood R.R.,et al."Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe".Geophysical Research Letters 47.17(2020).