气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087923
	Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models
	Hyun S.-H.; Yeh S.-W.; Song S.-Y.; Park H.-S.; Kirtman B.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:17
英文摘要	Using a statistical method, we examined the time of emergence (ToE), which was defined as the year when the global mean surface temperature (GMST) trend exceeds the trend explained by internal variability, using 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for 1861–2100. We found that the GMST trend explained by internal variability showed minimal changes even though the GMST trend rapidly increased under the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. However, there was large intermodel diversity for the ToEs in CMIP5 climate models. The intensity of Arctic amplification was closely associated with intermodel diversity of the ToEs. A significant difference in the amount of Arctic sea ice extent during the reference period (1861-1910) played a role in determining whether there was slow or fast simulation of the ToE in CMIP5 climate models. We argue that a slow or fast ToE is influenced by how the climate models initially simulate the sea ice extent during the reference period. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Sea ice; Arctic sea ice; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Fast simulation; Global mean surface temperature; Internal variability; Sea ice extent; Climate models; amplification; climate variation; CMIP; sea ice; statistical analysis; surface temperature; trend analysis; Arctic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169833
作者单位	Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, ERICA, Seoul, South Korea; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hyun S.-H.,Yeh S.-W.,Song S.-Y.,et al. Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models[J],2020,47(17).
APA	Hyun S.-H.,Yeh S.-W.,Song S.-Y.,Park H.-S.,&Kirtman B.P..(2020).Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models.Geophysical Research Letters,47(17).
MLA	Hyun S.-H.,et al."Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models".Geophysical Research Letters 47.17(2020).