气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A 4-Month Lead Predictor of Open-Water Onset in Bering Strait

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089573
	A 4-Month Lead Predictor of Open-Water Onset in Bering Strait
	Luo X.; Wang Y.; Lu Y.; Wei H.; Zhao W.; Nie H.; Hu X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:17
英文摘要	This study reveals that the yearday of open-water onset (topen) in Bering Strait can be predicted with a lead time of about 4 months using a regression equation topen = 37.45CCN + 125.2 (in Julian days), with an averaged absolute error of 5 days and the maximum error of 12 days, where CCN is the ice concentration averaged from 16th January to 15th February near Cape Navarin. This “predictor” is revealed through analyzing the solution of a regional ocean and sea-ice model. A key factor contribution to the prediction is that the prior winter ice concentration is controlled by the sea surface temperature, and persists into the start of the melting phase near the marginal ice zone in the Cape Navarin area. As ice melts near Cape Navarin, successive melting due to solar heat absorption and lateral heat transport occurs rapidly downstream along Anadyr Current. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Melting; Sea ice; Surface waters; Absolute error; Heat absorption; Heat transport; Ice concentration; Marginal Ice Zone; Regression equation; Sea ice modeling; Sea surface temperature (SST); Oceanography; absorption; error analysis; latent heat flux; marginal ice zone; melting; open water; prediction; regression analysis; sea ice; sea surface temperature; Anadyr; Bering Strait; Chukchi; Russian Federation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169810
作者单位	School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China; Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Luo X.,Wang Y.,Lu Y.,et al. A 4-Month Lead Predictor of Open-Water Onset in Bering Strait[J],2020,47(17).
APA	Luo X..,Wang Y..,Lu Y..,Wei H..,Zhao W..,...&Hu X..(2020).A 4-Month Lead Predictor of Open-Water Onset in Bering Strait.Geophysical Research Letters,47(17).
MLA	Luo X.,et al."A 4-Month Lead Predictor of Open-Water Onset in Bering Strait".Geophysical Research Letters 47.17(2020).