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| DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088570 |
| On the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Tests for Evaluating Spatial Earthquake Forecasts | |
| Parsons T. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 |
| 卷号 | 47期号:17 |
| 英文摘要 | Spatial forecasts of triggered earthquake distributions have been ranked using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) tests. The test is a binary comparison between regions of positive and negative forecast against positive and negative presence of earthquakes. Forecasts predicting only positive changes score higher than Coulomb methods, which predict positive and negative changes. I hypothesize that removing the possibility of failures in negative forecast realms yields better ROC scores. I create a “perfect” Coulomb forecast where all earthquakes only fall into positive stress change areas and compare with an informationless all-positive forecast. The “perfect” Coulomb forecast barely beats the informationless forecast, and adding as few as four earthquakes occurring in the negative stress regions causes the Coulomb forecast to be no better than an informationless forecast under a ROC test. ROC tests also suffer from data imbalance when applied to earthquake forecasts because there are many more negative cases than positive. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. |
| 英文关键词 | Earthquakes; Testing; Comparison between regions; Earthquake forecast; Negative stress; Positive changes; Positive stress; Receiver operating characteristics; Spatial forecasts; Triggered Earthquakes; Forecasting; earthquake event; earthquake trigger; failure mechanism; forecasting method; stress change; testing method |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169765 |
| 作者单位 | U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, CA, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parsons T.. On the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Tests for Evaluating Spatial Earthquake Forecasts[J],2020,47(17). |
| APA | Parsons T..(2020).On the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Tests for Evaluating Spatial Earthquake Forecasts.Geophysical Research Letters,47(17). |
| MLA | Parsons T.."On the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Tests for Evaluating Spatial Earthquake Forecasts".Geophysical Research Letters 47.17(2020). |
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